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Le 24 August 2015, 08:55 dans Humeurs 0

Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates An idea that gets repeated often enough seems to gather weight and, eventually, gets accepted as part of the conventional wisdom. An example of this type of in investment planning is the belief that retirees can safely plan to withdraw an (inflation adjusted) annual income of no more than celine bag 4% of their portfolio value at the time of retirement. In other words, if you are retiring this year and have $1 Million in invested assets, you can draw only $40,000 per year in 2006 dollars for the rest of your life. The basic issue here is that there is risk in the future performance of your invested assets. If you are drawing a constant annual income against these assets, you will draw proportionately more after a down period than after a period of gains. You must account for the chance of a period of drawdowns this is how you end up with a draw of 4% from a portfolio that is generating 78% in average return. It is common to run across advisors who advocate the 4% number as a basis for planning, without critically examining the underlying assumptions in this article from The Motley Fool.

The socalled solution results when you look at the ability of a generic portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds to reliably support a constant inflationindexed income draw for 30+ years of retirement. The safety of the four percent draw has been demonstrated from a range of Monte Carlo models, given the assumptions listed above.

It is important to critically examine the assumptions that have gone into getting this result from historical data and from Monte Carlo simulations. One critic of the efficacy of the suggested percent draw is Jonathan Guyton.

He makes a series of good points, and the two main ones are that (1) the specific asset allocation makes a substantial difference in a safe draw and (2) that the ability to lower your income draw in bad years makes a substantial difference in portfolio survival. Mr. Guyton analysis uses historical market data from the 1970 forward, which is not a bad idea but thus means that his results may be sensitive to the specific period. He finds that a portfolio with 80% invested in equities would support a 4.7% draw rate, with no modification in income draw from year to year, except to index up with inflation. The stock portfolio in question was quite broadly, with 20% in international stocks and 10% in REIT He also finds that an investor who can lower his income draw in bad years will substantially increase his potential average income over his entire retirement. I like Mr. Guyton analysis, but I do have some concerns. First, because this analysis focuses on a single period in history, the success of a specific strategy of altering income draw may be fitted to this historical period. Second, and more critical, is the issue of the equity risk premium. volatility) that investors have been exposed to.

If the economic experts are correct, and the equity risk premium in the future is lower than we have seen over the past 30 years, it may be too rosy simply to look at the last celine handbags 30 years as the basis for planning.


It would be expected that an investor will try to draw less from his/her portfolio after a bad year. That said, the basic case of a constant inflationindexed draw provides a good baseline for planning. A good approach is to check that your portfolio will sustain your basic income needs constant flow of income needed to sustain your lifestyle. If you happen to hit a major series of good years during retirement, you can always test what would happen for a high withdrawal to out some extra gains and then plan accordingly. In other words, I feel that it celine bag online is most important to ensure that your portfolio has a high probability of sustaining your basic required income draw. If we ignore various income cycling strategies, the main issue that we want to look at is how to allocate a portfolio to give the highest income at a specific level of certainty.

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Le 20 August 2015, 07:59 dans Humeurs 0

7 Profitable Small Cap Basic Materials Stocks Projected For Growth If you are an investor who prefers growth opportunities, an obvious place to start your investigation is with small cap stocks. To minimize the risks associated with stocks at this level, it is key to analyze profitability and growth projections. When the two are well matched, a company is well positioned to balenciaga bag for sale utilize the profits to fuel growth. Keeping this in mind, we searched for profitable smallcap stocks in the basic materials sector that have EPS growth rates of 25% or better in the next year. We arrived at a list of stocks that warrant more research.

EPS growth (earnings per share growth) illustrates the growth of earnings per share over time. The 5Year Expected EPS Growth Rate is a longterm annual growth estimate, where the growth projections are made by analysts, the company or other credible sources.

The Net Margin is a profitability metric that illustrates, by percentage, how much of every dollar earned gets turned into a bottom line profit. This is just one of many profitability metrics used by investors and analysts to better understand what the company is being left with at the end of the day. Generally, a firm that can expand its net profit margins over a period of time will see its stock price rise as well due to the trend of increasing profitability. Net Margin = Net Income/Total Revenue

EPS growth (earnings per share growth) illustrates the growth of earnings per share over time. EPS growth rates help investors identify stocks that are increasing or decreasing in profitability. This profitability metric is generally a key driver in the price of the stock as it directly correlates to the profitability of the company Balenciaga Bag as a whole.

We first looked for small cap basic materials stocks. Then we looked for companies that have high future balenciaga bag sale earnings per share growth forecasts(5year projected EPS Growth Rate>25%). Next, we screened for businesses that have achieved strong bottom line profitability (Net Margin [TTM]>10%)(1year fiscal EPS Growth Rate>10%). has a fiveyear projected earnings per share growth rate of 45.00%, a net margin of 20.96%, and an earnings per share growth rate of 141.20%. The short interest was 9.24% as of August 16, 2012. Intrepid Potash, Inc. produces and markets muriate of potash and langbeinite under the Trio brand name primarily in the United States. Its langbeinite, sulfate of potash magnesia, is a lowchloride potassium fertilizer with the additional benefits of sulfate and magnesium, providing a multinutrient product. The company also offers byproducts, such as salt, magnesium chloride, and metal recovery salts.


2) Rex Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:REXX) Sector:Basic Materials Industry:Oil Gas Drilling Exploration Market Cap:$669.12M Beta:2.23

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Le 16 August 2015, 09:09 dans Humeurs 0

Secret Fashion Show cheap ysl handbags 2012 Photos

Check out a brand new photo slideshow from one of the hottest nights of the year and pick your favorite Angel from our Victoria's Secret Fashion Show photos here. Then let us know which beauty stokes your fire in the comments ysl handbags section below, and catch the televised event on Dec. 4 on CBS!

Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2012: Rihanna's Pearl Glasses and a $2.5 Million Bra

The annual Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2012 was held at the Lexington Avenue Armory on Nov. 7 in New York City, and all of Victoria's best Angels, including superhotties Alessandra Ambrosio and Adriana Lima, ysl handbags for sale were on hand to strut their stuff down the runway wearing next to nothing (and wearing it incredibly well, we might add).

The starstudded Victoria's Secret event featured performances by Rihanna, Justin Bieber and Bruno Mars. For her one of her performances, RiRi was decked out in stockings, garters and a long black gown with a strapless, bustierstyle bodice and a thighhigh slit to reveal the garters at work. Rihanna finished her look saint laurent clutches bags with lacy black gloves, pearl necklaces encircling her neck and pearlrimmed circle glasses.

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